OPINION: Christmas Wishes in July

“Christmas in July” originated at a summer camp in 1933, which dedicated two days in July to the holiday. This is a “wish list” for Santa in the hope that by Aug. 24 (Ukraine’s Independence Day), we will find these under our Christmas tree:

• The trends in polling, both in Europe and Ukraine, are not promising. Europe is increasingly skeptical of Ukrainian victory, and Ukraine is showing signs of exhaustion from the 30 months of suffering inflicted by Russia. The urgency of the situation is pressing. While President Volodymyr Zelensky is an inspiration to his nation and is doing his utmost to shore up the nation’s morale, the public is losing confidence in his government. The replacement of the very popular and highly respected Gen. Valery Zaluzhny in the midst of a war for (what seemed to be) flimsy reasons has created widespread doubts and mistrust of Ukraine’s leaders. Despite the president’s claim that he needed a reset in his military command, it is clear that the public is hoping for a reset in his civilian command. Perhaps a recall of Gen. Zaluzhny from London to advise the president as Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council would restore confidence and encourage more enlistments.

• There have been times when the President and his Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak appear to have been joined at the hip. Undoubtedly, the two are great friends and work together very well. But it is never desirable – both for foreign and domestic appearances – for a nation amid an existential war to leave doubts about who is in charge. Foreign commentators and officials refer to him as the “Gray Cardinal” and take their cues from the frequency that Yermak, without any legal standing other than that of a civil servant, seems to speak for the President and the nation. This was even a bit controversial at the Summit in Switzerland when Yermak was positioned at the front and center of a group photo of heads of state and Ministers. Closer to home, domestic observers have faulted Yermak for several serious errors in judgment and the President’s closely circumscribed and selective circle of advisers and appointees as reason to doubt the wisdom and intentions of the President himself. A more transparent leadership, with clear lines of authority and decision-making, is urgently needed to restore public trust and confidence.

In most Western governments, the relationship between the president and his chief of staff is that of a decision-maker on the one hand and the chief administrator of the presidential staff on the other. I doubt that more than a handful of people can even name the heads of a presidential office. However, resetting the Office of the President is crucial to bring about the required transformation and establish a clear line of authority and decision-making, thereby avoiding confusion and ensuring effective governance.

• It may also be time to bring the “Peace Summit” process, a diplomatic initiative to resolve the conflict, to a dignified end, claim victory, and move on. As long as Russia maintains the initiative to press ahead on the battlefield and insists on not only holding on to the territory it currently occupies but further expanding its holdings, Ukrainians will appear to be merely defending themselves, with little or no prospects for victory. Like so many other applications in life, the appearance and confidence of success breeds success. There can be no better demonstration of ultimate Ukrainian victory than the surprise deployment by helicopter behind enemy lines to Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory of small and well-equipped units. Such units, once grounded, would be in a position to link up with local partisans and, by Ukraine’s law of “Total Territorial Defense,” make the occupied territory ungovernable by liberating villages and prisoners, destroying enemy facilities and logistics, assassinating Russian administrators and collaborators, and forcing Russians to react defensively by reassigning troops from front lines to track down and eliminate these mobile units – units engaged in surprise, attack, and concealment until picked up and flown back to safety across enemy lines. Russian reassignment of frontline troops could enable Ukrainian defenders to cut secure land passages through Russian lines.

Suppose Ukraine were to acquire advanced helicopters, identify low-risk fly-over areas along the 1,200 km Russian defensive line, and deploy its troops freely throughout the occupied area, completely cutting off Russian supply lines by winter. In that case, the “Peace Summit” attendees would likely tilt heavily towards recommending that Ukraine hold out for victory on its terms. That has always been “the way of the world” – a winner has many fathers.

• The whole issue of mobilization and recruitment has been murky. But one thing is certain. Ukraine cannot allow the “politics” of mobilization to affect the number of troops it needs to prevail. The human cost of conceding any part of its territory will be far greater than the cost and sacrifice of even “surplus” troops on the lines.

One of the last laws President Zelensky signed before the existential threat to Ukraine became real was the “Total Territorial Defense” law. That law –passed by the Verkhovna Rada and enacted by the president – placed responsibility for the defense of their homeland on every Ukrainian citizen and organization. This is not the time to waiver.

Other Topics of Interest

Europe, Not the US, Is Ukraine’s Most Important Source of Support by a Substantial Margin

If money spent helping war refugees counts as money spent because Russia invaded Ukraine, then Europe is outspending the United States on Ukraine right now about three to one.

• Surely, 80 years after the end of World War II, the nations of Europe and North America can remove the blinders from their eyes by preventing the dog’s tail from wagging the dog. That is the case with Orban, who has been free to accuse the rest of his NATO and EU colleagues of warmongering while frustrating every attempt to face up to the existential threat that is Russia. The concept of unanimity should be discarded as having no place in the ordinary administration of an organization, and replaced with a two-thirds or three-quarters rule.

• Finally, the last item on Santa’s list is to find some “financial angels” from among the affluent (including the strangely silent oligarchs) in Ukraine and the Diaspora to set up – the first of their kind – well-funded, professional, non-governmental information centers in the US, Canada, England, France, and Germany. These centers are not just a luxury; they are a necessity, capable of countering Russian propaganda and lies, advocating for Ukrainian interests, and systematically ensuring intervention wherever Ukraine’s enemies – domestic and foreign – misrepresent, abuse, exploit, or otherwise disturb the peace and security of a people that have – more than once shed blood in defense of Western civilization and values.

The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.